So, it has to be V-shaped that you're coming out. And people are talking about a V-shaped recovery, which I think it will be V-shaped, but only because once you've plunged so far deep, there is no other shape of recovery possible. So, this is just a plunge of the year 2020. Prof Kaushik Basu: I am personally worried. NDTV: Kaushik, would you agree that it is absolutely imperative that we must have this big upturn in the economy, any slippage and we are in deep trouble? Not even the slightest, but we really need 11% plus. Prof Kaushik Basu: That is just what is needed at this stage Could you lean slightly to your right, I do want to see Rabindranath Tagore behind you. NDTV: Before we start, I do have one favour to ask you. But I know you are actually genuinely busy for once in your life. I know everybody uses lockdown as an excuse. NDTV: Can I bring you in Professor Kaushik Basu, thank you very, very much for sparing the time to join us. We have problems at our border, we'd better get economically bigger if we are to deal with some of the problems that emerge on our border, including our ability to spend much more on defence. And that is untenable for India, given the many needs we have for jobs, for growth and so on. The question is what happens after that? What happens in 2022, '23, '24, and there most people expect we go back to a very slow rate of growth, the 4 or 5% we've had before the pandemic. Yes, we won't go back to where we were if the virus hadn't happened, but we will certainly make up some of the ground, the lost ground from last year's terrible performance. Prof Raghuram Rajan: So, the good news is that if, again, if the virus keeps going down, India will have a very strong year this year, a year of rebound. How do you see our economy in the medium term, will this positive post pandemic bounce back, will it be really strong? What do you think?
NDTV: Coming to the Indian economy where are we heading and what next? Now, the extent of the rebound that's being forecast for the Indian economy is impressive and it's really needed.
So, you're obviously doing something right. NDTV: But I must honestly say you are looking really fit. I guess that's one thing you have to try and focus on, eat better, and maybe do some exercise. Unfortunately, every day looks like the previous one. Prof Raghuram Rajan: Well, people find you at home, right? It's easier to find you when you're locked down. Did you think you have eight months or 10 months to, you know, lockdown, I can relax? I think you're busier even during the lockdown, the COVID period seems to make you even busier. Raghuram Rajan, thank you very, very much for joining us. That implies we will begin the catch up with other developing countries, though it will be only slightly short of their growth over the two years, placing them almost 4%, 3.75% above 2019 levels. The economic comeback for India is really, really significant, and a GDP next year will be about 2.5% above 2019, that's pre-pandemic. The forecast that India will have a V-shaped rebound means that despite falling 7.7% in the pandemic year, the economy will bounce back to be just over the pre-pandemic levels. Will India see a Post-Pandemic Rebound in our economy? The immediate question is of course, are we looking at a much, much better year ahead? We have lots and lots of ground to cover, believe me. In our first part today, we will be looking at some key issues for our country, including India's amazing Post-pandemic rebound that is being widely forecast and of course many, many more key issues will come up in this show. The conversations are wide-ranging covering a whole host of subjects, from this Pandemic Budget and its focus, to the hopes and fears for the future, to our farmers and the coming privatization of banks, to trends in global and India's democracy. This is not designed as an argument but a learning process, I have learnt a lot by it. To get the most in-depth views possible we spoke with each person, individually, in separate unique conversations.
Our overriding focus for this series of Town Halls is to ask, after this pandemic Budget, what comes next? Where is India heading? What lies ahead for all of us in the next few months and a year or two. And in a final exclusive programme, we have a very special interaction with the one and only Amartya Sen. This is actually a very special discussion for me, it's the first time I have interacted with six absolutely exceptional people, four of whom are Nobel Prize winners, Paul Milgrom, Abhijit Banerjee, Michael Kremer, and I also thank Raghuram Rajan and Kaushik Basu, two people who many say could soon be Nobel Prize winners too, and I believe that.
NDTV: Hello and a very, very warm welcome to this, the first of a four-part series of Town Halls on the Post-Pandemic world.